Monday 4 April 2016

The Global Migrant Crises
Here are my notes preparing for a Q&A session at a workshop for Year 10s at Burnham Grammar School held in march 2016.  
The teacher Ruth Eden had assembled a panel consisting of myself representing Windsor Humanists, the Bishop of Buckinghamshire the Right Rev Dr Alan Wilson and Arshad Gamiet Trustee of the Islamic Welfare Association of West Surrey.  
It was the first time I had done this sort of thing as myself and I found the experience inspiring. The pupils questions were excellent and disarmingly simple but as a result very hard to answer!  The first question was 'Is God to blame for the Syrian Civil War?' which sort of set the tone for a series of very challenging questions. Other keyquestions were 'Why do people of the same religion murder each other?', Can Europe take any more migrants versus Why does Europe not take more refugees?!
The morning was deemed a success by the school and the panel have agreed to be welcomed back in the future.  The feedback from the pupils was good and that they appreciated having a panel with such  a wide cross sections of views.  On a personal note I learned a lot preparing for the session and also listening to the pupils and responses from the other panel members who I hope to stay in contact with.  
I provide my prep notes for others in this blog given that I put a lot of effort into this and found my views changing as I investigated further into the issues. In my prep I tried to be very clear between evidence and my own opinion based on conversations with other humanists and extensive reading. I very soon realised there is no right nor easy answers or solutions to such a difficult and heart wrenching issue such as the ongoing migrant crises..........

Humanists Approach
  • Balance between Head and Heart using evidence and facts, not preconceptions, ideology, doctrines nor dogmas - ‘keep it real’
  • Understand all perspectives and different perceptions, the wider context and ongoing causes. Deal with the world as it is today not how you want it to be. Avoid the historic blame game as this usually gets you no where.  Try to understand others perspectives that are different from your own, whether you consider them to be valid or fair!  Use only trusted sources for information.
  • Recognise our common humanity and that most people are just like us who want a better life but also recognise the reality that there are brutal people with different agendas to your own who will use extreme violence to achieve their aims and who will cynically exploit misery and suffering to their own ends ….. who do not respect human rights and will cynically cheat any system for personal gain.
  • Decide on your own personal stance and be willing to change your views as new evidence emerges and events evolve.  Most importantly be the change you want to see in the world. Do what you can and are able to do to help but take care that your intervention and actions do not make things worse! 
Below is my own personal stance which is based on reading widely on the subject as part of preparing myself for todays workshop.  I also include my summary notes and a list with links to the main sources that I have used - mainly the BBC & the Economist.
My Own Personal Stance
  • I have worked and lived across the Middle East and South Asia - Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, India, Bangladesh, Nepal and worked for a short time in Syria and am shocked at the collapse of Syria due to Assad turning the Syrian Army on to his own people supported by Putin and Iran. I’m just devastated at what has happened and the cynical way Assad and Putin have deliberately created the biggest humanitarian disaster since WWII.
  • My own view is Syria and the Migration Crises is not just a European problem but never the less that Europe and the UK should be doing more.  But this does not necessarily mean resettling more Syrian Refugees in Europe nor accepting more and more economic migrants. I believe Europe just accepting unlimited numbers of refugees is not the solution and could permanently harm any future peaceful Syria, and the economic prospects of the developing countries.  The uncontrolled mass migration witnessed last year has added to the misery of the Syrian Refugees and created a huge backlash across Europe. This is not a solution, and i fact it is an unmitigated disaster.
  • Syria Crises needs to be dealt with in the short term and is urgent. Tackling the causes of uncontrolled economic migration which will take longer as the causes are complex.
  • Short term - Syrian Civil War, three strands all must work in parallel….
    • Secure ‘Geneva’ Peace Settlement in Syria - the current ceasefire and a final negotiated settlement should be the priority of the UN given the war has the potential to escalate in many different frightening ways.  This will not be easy with so many competing ‘players’ and overlapping factions and competing inconsistent geopolitical self interests e.g. between Russia, USA, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc
    • Upgrade the Syrian refugee Camps - the EU should work with the UN to upgrade the Syrian refugee Camps in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan so that these are functioning communities with proper hospitals, economies, schools.  The Syrian refugees can then have hope that they are safe and can prepare themselves for a return to their homes when the war is over.  It is important that there are still Syrians willing to return to rebuild Syria. For example many of the Oil engineers I worked with over the years will be needed to re-open the Syrian oil fields!  If the EU takes too many of these educated refugees it will undermine winning the peace when it comes… 
    • Stop Uncontrolled Mass Migration - it is exposing vulnerable people to unscrupulous traffickers and the dangers of the perilous crossings of the Aegean Sea where thousands of people have died. This is a case where you have to be cruel in the short term to be kind to a greater number of people.  This will only work if a proper Global Asylum System is put in place direct from the refugee camps so that Syrians who want to flee and not wait for peace can do so via proper safe systems. For example those who were prominent opponents of the Assad regime who can never return if he stays in power. It is important that the Asylum System is not a system for resettling refugees permanently only in Europe. The rest of the world should help as well as this is a global problem and not one just for the EU to solve - as was achieved with the similar SE Asia Migration Crises.
  • Longer Term - Global Economic Migration 
    • UN Reports that global absolute poverty has decreased by 50% since 1990 through  economic development  whilst wages and standards of living in Europe have stagnated.  These trends continue and it is important that the focus on reducing child mortality, women emancipation and effective development aid continues co-ordinated by the UN to help the remaining 1 billion people who are still living in grinding absolute poverty.   See the Hans Rosling BBC Documentary on Utube.
    • It is possible that we could eliminate absolute poverty by 2050 in your lifetimes through continued well targeted overseas development aid, education and further economic development - see UN targets and reported trends in Sources section.
    • UNHCR identifies specific criteria for people in need of resettlement - women & children  at risk, survivors of violence, refugees with medical needs, those at risk due to gender or sexual orientation, those with family links in resettlement countries - these are the criteria the UK uses when considering applications for Asylum. 
    • Uncoordinated and unplanned economic migrants are in essence ‘jumping the queue’ and perhaps are reducing the scope for resettling the most vulnerable Asylum seekers?  Mass migration of the most educated and wealthy out of developing countries represents a serious ‘brain drain’ of talent and young men who are required in their home countries to drive change and to deliver the required economic, political and social changes?
    • Clearly there is a need to offer Asylum to those in most need and in immediate danger but balanced by the need to support those who are a countries future to stay in their birth country and be the drivers for positive change for the future development of their own countries.  The global trends are all positive as recognised by the UN and described brilliantly by Hans Rosling - see the BBC documentary on Utube!

What I have Done so Far?
I have contributed some of my own money in 2012 to support the UN Syrian Relief effort.
I have also been investigating how I might offer my spare room on a temporary basis to Asylum seekers fleeing persecution in Africa or Asia.  I have contacted various charities but so far have not made much progress.
What can you do to help?  Signing on line petitions is not actually doing anything!
Slough Council is currently considering how we can help locally to resettle some of the 20000 Syrian refugees targeted by the UK Government for resettlement direct from the UNCHR operated camps around Syria.  See attached Home Office document and link.  There might be opportunities to help out locally very soon?   Could the School adopt a resettled Syrian family when they arrive?

BACKGROUND NOTES
Syrian Civil War - Largest Humanitarian Crises since WWII
  • A humanitarian disaster - over 13.6 million Syrians have been displaced by the brutal civil war - this is nearly half the population. Over 500 thousand people have died mainly civilians. Over 5 million of these have fled Syria with over 4.5 million in UN operated refugee camps in Turkey (2.5m), Lebanon (1.2m) and Jordan (0.6m). A million migrants have fled to Europe and it is estimated that half of these are Syrian refugees, the rest mainly from Afganistan, Iraq, Somalia, Libya and Pakistan.  These are huge figures and represent the largest refugee crises since World War 2.  Germany has taken the bulk of the current refugees so far - see map from the BBC.
  • The Syrian State no longer exists and has fractured into many warring factions due to differences on multiple overlapping and complex dimensions - Religion (Sunni & Shia…& other numerous sectarian divisions), Ethnicity (Arab, Turks, Kurds, Alawites) and Geopolitics (Russian Naval Bases, D’aesh, Iraq, Saudi Arabia vs Iran, Turkey, Nato). It’s a horrific mess and will take some time to negotiate a peaceful settlement with so many competing factions.
Syrian War is Destabilising the Whole Region - Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon are all struggling to cope with the scale of the crises with Turkey becoming less democratic under Erdogan. There is a real risk the war could escalate to pull in Turkey a Nato member Saudi Arabia in direct conflict with the Russians and Iran.  It is a dangerous time for the world and cool heads and considered responses are required by all concerned.
Majority of Syrians will want to return to Syria when the War is over but many have been stuck in refugee camps for 5 years.  The UN is planning to turn the refugee camps into more organised ‘townships’ with their own internal effective economies, employment, and infra-structure like schools, hospitals etc so that the refugees will have the resources and skills to rebuild Syria when they return after the war.
Refugees are reasonable people in a desperate situation - however there are implications longer term if Europe accepts too many Syrian refugees. It is the wealthier and better educated Syrians that are fleeing to Europe as they have the money plus language skills to negotiate and deal with the various traffickers and officials along the route.  Will they want to return to help rebuild the new Syria?  Will their permanent loss hinder the rebuilding of Syria after the War?
Other Drivers for Migration to Europe 
  • Push Factors - the migrants are rational and are doing no more than we would if we were put in the same desperate situations or lived in their countries where leaving appears to be a better option than staying stuck in their home country or in an awful refugee camp with no work, prospects and where there is repression, gang violence, and no economic opportunities….
    • Urgent Humanitarian Refugee Crises - A Global Issue not just a European Crises!
      • Wars - Syria Civil War, Insurgencies in Iraq, Afghanistan etc
      • Failed States - where the rule of law and civil society has collapsed e.g. Somalia, Libya, Iraq with people fleeing persecution and extreme violence
    • Longer Term Chronic Causes of Economic Migration - is a Global Issue
      • Poverty - Nigeria, Chad etc
      • Global Inequalities - always existed but these are now more visible due to the internet, social media, we live in a more connected ‘smaller’ world
      • Lack of Economic Opportunities in home country despite better educated population there is often slow economic growth due to recent rapid population growth and for governance which restricts opportunities particularly for the young
      • Repression - political, religious, gender, sexuality and ethnic violence makes life for most intolerable e.g. Pakistan, Iran, Saudi, Zimbabwe etc

  • Pull Factors - the Refugees and Economic Migrants prefer mostly to come to Europe and are not trying to go to places like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia. Why is this?
    • Freedom & Economic Opportunity - for families, and mainly young educated men seeking to reach their full life potential, has an established record of giving Asylum to vulnerable people e.g. Yugoslavian Civil War in the 90s
    • European Reputation - rule of law, human rights, democracy, wealthy economies with robust welfare systems, relatively stable civil societies - good schools, universities - Europe historically since WWII tries to do the right thing and promotes Humans Rights.
    • Global Media - often provide potential migrants with a far too rosy picture of life in Europe, there are pros and cons to any move and many underestimate the difficulties of integrating into a foreign culture very different from their own. Many migrants will eventually return home disillusioned….. with the ‘West’.
    • People Traffickers - exploiters of the various crises for personal gain, who facilitate unwise unplanned and unrealistic expectations of gaining asylum status in Europe. These traffickers facilitate migration for a price - often in lives. For example Germany has given citizenship to only 2-3% of foreign nationals who have lived in Germany for >10 years. This may not fit with the expectations of the migrants who may think they will automatically get citizenship and then access to the rest of the EU?
European Response so far
  • Different responses of EU countries reflect their recent history, relative wealth and demographics - most of Europe has already accepted large numbers of migrants in the last 20 years:-
    • UK has seen largest recent population increases in the EU - over 7million with 50% from within the EU and 50% from outside the Europe. England is one of the most densely populated areas in the EU. Its growing economy, and flexible employment market are a major pull factor. The UK has a generous welfare system but this is a secondary pull factor.  Most migrants come to be safe and to work and want to contribute. The UK has agreed to take 20000 refugees over 5 years directly from the UN refugee camps. The USA and the UK (donated over £1billion so far) are the largest donors by far to the UN Syrian relief operation - which runs the refugee camps.  The UK has already absorbed a large influx of migrants so far without the backlash and rise of both left and right wing extremists as witnessed elsewhere in Europe.
    • France, NL, Sweden and most Western EU countries have increasing populations due to internal EU migration mainly from Eastern Europe, and in the case of France large net immigration from North Africa particularly Algeria and Morocco.  Serious internal tensions have arisen in France and Sweden due to the difficulties of integration of migrants in to the western liberal democratic secular traditions.  There have been several terrorist attacks on secular targets by Islamic extremists in Paris.
    • Germany has a decreasing and ageing population, so would benefit from large scale immigration and influx of migrants. This explains Germany’s recent unilateral ‘open door’ response and Merkel’s ‘unconditional welcome’. This created a huge pull for uncontrolled migration across Europe last summer before the EU had put in place effective systems and before an EU co-ordinated response was established.  There is now a growing backlash to this ’open door’ in Germany with the new far right AFD Party making large gains in recent elections.  Merkel’s heart was in the right place but her actions have had huge implications for the whole of Europe and have made the situation much worse, and could have permanently damaged an effective co-ordinated EU response to the crises. 
    • Eastern and Southern Europe democracies & economies are fragile and still relatively poor and have experienced recent large emigration to the rest of the EU resulting in a decrease in their overall population levels.  Nationalistic parties opposed in principal to migration have recently been elected into power in Poland and Hungary and many countries on the migration route to Germany have now closed their borders to stem the uncontrolled and chaotic mass migration of Syrian refugees and economic migrants through their countries. This have left some 300 thousand migrants trapped in Greece.
  • Large scale and rapid migration can have serious implications for social cohesion if not managed carefully with proper systems, controls and processes in place. Often new immigrants are resettled and concentrated into poorer urban areas which do not match their ‘dreams’ and expectations of a better life in their new home.
    • 80% of the refugees reaching Europe have been young men not families. The Syrian refugee camps are dominated by women and children.  Many migrants have destroyed their identity documents making it difficult to identify genuine refugees from economic migrants. Some argue that the men are trying to get Asylum in Europe and plan for their families left in the refugee camps to join them later as a way to avoid taking their families on the perilous journey through Europe. Over 2000 refugees have died in the Aegean Sea due to overloading and poor quality of the boats being used by the people traffickers. Some argue that unscrupulous economic migrants and even terrorists are exploiting the chaos to get into Europe with forged Syrian passports.  What is certain is that only desperate, the most motivated and those with means to pay the traffickers would embark on such journeys.
    • Many under estimate the dislocation, effort and time needed to integrate significant numbers of young men and eventually their families from very different patriarchal cultures into Europe’s liberal secular societies. Tensions across Europe are high after mass abuse of women over New Year in Germany and also rising violent crime in Sweden.  Xenophobic right wing parties are gaining electoral success across Europe in response to the migration crises, e.g. France, Hungary, Poland, even in Germany.
    • Breakdown of the Schengen Open Borders system, with unilateral introduction of border controls in Sweden, Austria and the closing of most borders in Eastern Europe
    • Some Geopolitical elements are exploiting the uncoordinated and uncontrolled mass migration across Europe to destabilise the EU e.g. Isis can hide their operatives among the legitimate Syrian refugees.  Russia’s deliberate cynical bombing of civilians in Syria has recently created additional  waves of refugees putting more strain on Turkey, Nato and the EU.
  • Turkey/EU Brussels ‘Tusk’ Agreement - the principals of a more co-ordinated and organised response to the crises was agreed last week with details still to be finalised This agreement establishes an agreed EU wide process for dealing with the refugee crises in a more co-ordinated way with Turkeys assistance. It should discourage the dangerous ‘free for all’ migration witnessed over the last year. The new agreement will establish a system for assessing refugee status and ensuring those in most genuine need are granted asylum to Europe.  Turkey and Greece will get increased funding from the EU to operate the refugee systems and camps.  Turkey citizens will be allowed visa free travel in the Schengen area in return for their assistance in managing the crises.  It is interesting that this is close to the UK’s stated policy since the start of the crises of only taking the most vulnerable direct from the refugee camps to discourage the refugees from undertaking the dangerous migration through Turkey and South Eastern Europe!
Main Sources
The Economist Briefings - on the Syrian refugee Crises and on UN World Poverty Strategy
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21578665-nearly-1-billion-people-have-been-taken-out-extreme-poverty-20-years-world-should-aim
Times and Sunday Times - various articles and editorials
Windsor Humanists discussion at Meeting in December 2015
Russia Today - not recommended as a reliable source 
Wikipedia - Europe Population Trends https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_population_growth_rate

Hans Rosling UTube - BBC Documentary on World Poverty & Population Trends https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)